From green dreams to strategic imperatives

The evolving narrative of critical minerals

Over the past few years, the discourse around critical minerals has largely been framed as a cornerstone of the electric vehicle (EV) revolution and the broader energy transition. Governments and industries emphasized their role in creating greener economies, fostering innovation, and combating climate change. However, in the last six months, this narrative has undergone a gradual shift. Conversations once dominated by sustainability and clean energy are increasingly infused with themes of national security, geopolitical strategy, and economic sovereignty.

This evolution reflects the growing realization that critical minerals are not just essential for a sustainable future but are also pivotal to the stability and competitiveness of nations in an increasingly fragmented global milieu. As tensions escalate between major powers and supply chains face unprecedented vulnerabilities, governments are reconsidering their approach to these resources. Countries like Canada and the U.S. are no longer merely talking about critical minerals as a pathway to EVs or renewable energy systems but as a means of safeguarding strategic industries, defending against supply chain disruptions, and supporting defense capabilities and readiness.

What is driving this shift in focus, and how is it shaping policy decisions and investments, and what does it mean for the mining sector, particularly in resource-rich regions like Ontario? Does this new framing elevate the critical minerals agenda? Or does it risk sidelining the green energy narrative in favour of heightened geopolitics? As governments pivot their rhetoric and strategies, the question arises: How does this redefinition of critical minerals impact their role in shaping the future?

In Ontario, critical minerals have taken centre stage in discussions about both economic resilience and national security. Premier Doug Ford has emphasized the province’s pivotal role in ensuring a stable supply of these resources, vital for advanced technologies, clean energy, and defense applications. Through initiatives like “Fortress Am-Can,” Ford aims to accelerate the development of resources in regions like the Ring of Fire, positioning Ontario as a strategic partner in the Canada-U.S. critical minerals alliance. Speaking to the broader implications, Ford has highlighted that Fortress Am-Can can achieve energy security to power economic growth for both nations, underscoring the importance of reducing reliance on countries that do not share democratic values or align with national security priorities. Furthermore, Ford has not shied away from addressing trade tensions, proposing retaliatory measures such as restricting critical mineral exports to the U.S. in response to potential tariffs. “We have to retaliate hard against our friends south of the border, which is unfortunate,” Ford remarked, emphasizing Ontario’s readiness to safeguard its economic interests. These statements reflect a growing alignment in Ontario’s policy rhetoric with themes of security, sovereignty, and strategic collaboration, reshaping the narrative around critical minerals beyond the energy transition.

At the federal level, Canada’s approach to critical minerals has evolved over recent months. Initially framed within the context of the energy transition and the push for electrification, the narrative has shifted toward emphasizing supply chain localization and national security. This change reflects growing geopolitical tensions and the recognition of vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson has also described the strategic importance of these resources as being strategic assets that contribute to Canada’s prosperity and national security. Similarly, Innovation, Science, and Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne has reinforced this focus by implementing policies aimed at protecting Canada’s critical mineral sectors from foreign state-owned enterprises. He has stressed the need for continued direct foreign investment, while guarding against threats to our national security, and our critical minerals supply chains. These statements highlight how the federal government is prioritizing strategic autonomy and economic resilience, shifting from a focus on green energy to a broader agenda that aligns with global security concerns. This pivot marks a recalibration of priorities, aiming to ensure Canada’s critical minerals are leveraged not only for climate goals but also to strengthen the nation’s geopolitical standing.

Ontario’s critical minerals sector stands at a pivotal juncture, with its significance extending beyond the EV industry to encompass broader economic and national security concerns. While the EV market remains a substantial driver of demand for these minerals, other sectors are rapidly emerging as key consumers. Energy storage, for instance, is poised to experience significant growth. According to McKinsey & Company, the global battery energy storage systems market is expected to reach between $120 billion and $150 billion by 2030, more than doubling its current size.

Beyond energy storage, critical minerals are essential for the development of advanced defense technologies, telecommunications infrastructure, and renewable energy systems. This diversification underscores the strategic importance of Ontario’s mineral resources in bolstering both economic resilience and national security. As global demand for these minerals intensifies, Ontario is well-positioned to leverage its rich deposits to meet the needs of various high-growth industries, ensuring a prosperous and secure future for the province. What remains to be seen is how this shift in narrative will impact public opinion and support for the mining sector and critical minerals which has been dealing with an image problem for decades. Will the shift in focus from cleaner and greener future to sovereignty and self-preservation resonate more deeply with the public? While traditional environmental and social concerns surrounding mining persist, the emphasis on national security and economic independence might redefine how communities perceive the value of mineral development. If effectively communicated, this narrative could not only reinforce industry support but also encourage more widespread acceptance of the sector’s role in shaping a secure, sustainable future. In fact, the renewed pressure that comes with this shift in message might just be the catalyst for accelerating the development of new mining projects across Ontario. 

Steve Gravel is the manager of the Centre for Smart Mining at Cambrian College.